I recently read an interesting article by Leon Aron, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, in which he presented 7 critical things President Trump doesn’t understand about Putin.
Key points from the article:
▪️ Putin is stalling for time
Putin continues to lose up to 1,000 soldiers a day with no meaningful gains on the front lines, Russia's economy is in decline, and prices go off scale. Yet instead of agreeing to Trump's ceasefire proposal, Putin stimulates negotiations.
Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff held a third meeting with Putin that ended with as little progress as the previous two. And two days later, Russia demonstrated its "desire for peace" by attacking Sumy on Palm Sunday and killing dozens of Ukrainian civilians.
▪️ Kremlin has no interest in negotiating peace with Ukraine
The author writes that the Trump administration's failure to see this fact stems from the blind spots that haunt virtually all U.S. presidents regarding the Russian Federation: ignorance of the country; confidence in their personal gift of persuasion; and an inability to appreciate the ideological and political imperatives that drive authoritarian regimes.
1️⃣ The war provides a rationale for Putin’s dictatorship
When incomes and economic growth slowed in Putin's third term as president (2012-2018), he switched the foundation of his regime legitimacy to militarized patriotism. This manifested first in the invasion and occupation of Crimea in 2014 and later in the decision to invade Ukraine. Putin still needs Russia to be beset by enemies or there is no reason for the militarized patriotism and the growing repression that drives his regime.
2️⃣ Putin likes the trappings of militarism
The Kremlin dictator relishes the title of supreme commander-in-chief, walking around in camouflage and pinning medals on soldiers. The end of the war will deprive him of props to create the image of a "defender of the motherland."
3️⃣ Russia’s economy is dependent on the war
After the full-scale invasion in 2022, the Russian economy has been restructured to support the war and transitioning to a peacetime economy is unlikely to be painless. The country's GDP is forecast to grow only at between 1.4 and 1.6 percent this year, and with the Central Bank's interest rate at 21%, there is little hope of a speedy recovery.
The deprivation is presented as wartime sacrifices for a "great victory." A Russian proverb says: "War will write off everything."
4️⃣ Ending wartime bonuses and other perks could cause social unrest
Ending of bonuses for joining the Russian army, soldiers' salaries and payouts to the families of the killed servicemen, which exceed the average national income by an order of magnitude, will certainly cause discontent. A significant increase in crimes committed by war veterans has already become a problem the Kremlin is concerned about, and it could get worse with fewer benefits.
5️⃣ Change is destabilizing in authoritarian regimes
Any abrupt change in policy, even for the better, is a risk for authoritarian regimes that are immune to outside pressure and lack flexibility.
6️⃣ Putin is an opportunist and a risk taker
Each new concession prompts increasingly brazen ultimatums from Putin. The more Trump offers as inducement, the more Putin will demand. It's Putin's "art" of the deal.
7️⃣ Putin needs victory, not peace
The main reason for the Kremlin's hesitation is that it prioritizes victory over peace. In wars, warring parties start negotiating when they are convinced they can accomplish more at the negotiating table than on the battlefield. "Better" for Putin means nothing less than the surrender of Ukraine.
Here is link to the article: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/15/putin-ukraine-reasons-war-00290138