📊#Infographics: Uzbekistan's foreign trade for March 2025

📶Uzbekistan's foreign trade turnover in March 2025 amounted to $17.3 billion (+8.6%)

➡️Exports in foreign trade turnover amounted to $8.1 billion (+24.4%)

✔️In the structure of exports, goods amounted to $6.4 billion and services to $1.7 billion

⬅️Imports in foreign trade amounted to $9.2 billion

✔️In particular, goods were imported for $8.2 billion and services for $967.3 million

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🧠 Why World Powers Are Battling Over Computer Chips

Bloomberg reports that the US is deploying export controls and tariffs in an effort to curtail China’s semiconductor capabilities.

⚙️ Chipmaking has become an increasingly exclusive business. New plants have a price tag of more than $20 billion, take years to build, and need to be run flat-out for 24 hours a day to turn a profit. The scale required has reduced the number of companies with leading-edge technology to just three:
🇹🇼Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC)
🇰🇷Samsung Electronics (South Korea)
🇺🇸Intel Corp. (USA)

🏭 TSMC and Samsung act as so-called foundries, providing outsourced manufacturing for companies around the world. Lower down the food chain, there’s a huge industry that makes so-called analog chips. Companies such as Texas Instruments Inc. and STMicroelectronics NV are leading makers of these components that do things such as adjust power inside smartphones and control temperatures. This is one area that China, blocked from access to many of the machines needed to make more cutting-edge parts, is targeting, investing heavily to boost production.

🇨🇳 Huawei is building a shadow manufacturing network of semiconductor-fabrication facilities across the country, which would let the blacklisted company skirt US sanctions. In 2023, it unveiled a smartphone powered by a processor with so-called 7-nanometer technology — more advanced than the US rules allow. As of late 2024, Huawei appeared to be using the same, 7-nanometer chips for its next generation of products, suggesting it was having trouble moving to the next level.

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🫥 Uzbekistan’s Regions Demonstrate Steady Economic Growth in March 2025 (+infographics)

📍The results for March indicate a stable positive trend across the regions of Uzbekistan, with continued growth in business activity, fiscal revenues, and the number of newly established business entities.

📝 The monitoring results for March 2025 showed that:

🔼 The volume of tax revenues increased by 19.6%
🔼 Revenues on customs payments increased by 15%
🔼 The volume of exports of goods increased by 7.1%

⬆️In March, 19,425 new business entities were established, with the largest numbers registered in Tashkent (4,459).

Sultonmurod Ozodov, CERR

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🧑‍💻 AI Generates Loads of Carbon Emissions. It’s Starting to Cut Them, Too

Bloomberg reports that shrinking the world’s carbon footprint will require poring over vast datasets to spot solutions — something computers do better and faster than humans.

📝A new report from BloombergNEF estimates that over the next decade, two-thirds of the additional power needed for data centers will come from fossil fuels. While concerns about AI are well-earned, the technology also has a role to play in fighting climate change.

📊Scaling up existing AI solutions could cut more emissions than all the data centers generate, the IEA estimates. Still, AI “is not a silver bullet” for the global climate crisis, the group says. Others point out it is hard to gauge whether the environmental damages AI helps avoid outweigh those it inflicts.

📈The good news: Not every model demands huge amounts of energy and regulators are stepping up oversight of the environmental trade-offs of AI applications. Here are four ways in which companies are deploying AI as a climate solution.

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🖋 Business Climate in Uzbekistan: Improvement in Both Current Conditions and Expectations

📊In March, the composite index increased by 8 points, reaching 61 points (on a scale from -100 to +100), indicating a favorable business environment in Uzbekistan.

📈 Overall, companies expressed greater satisfaction with their current situation, while their expectations for the coming months were marked by a high level of optimism, readiness for expansion, and adaptation to growing demand.

➡️ 76% of respondents expect further improvement in their business conditions,
➡️ 69% plan to expand their workforce
➡️ 8% forecast a decrease in prices for their products

📊 The survey highlighted shifts in access to financing across sectors. In agriculture, financing obstacles decreased by 5%, and by 2% in construction. However, 13% of industrial enterprises still face challenges in obtaining financing.

Sunatilla Zikrillaev, CERR

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🇺🇸First Shockwaves of Trump’s Tariffs Are About to Hit the World Economy
[long read]

Bloomberg reports that tariffs, and the risk they pose to both the economy and inflation, have been on the mind of survey respondents in recent months.

🔝 Bloomberg Economics says that the IMF’s projections tend to skew optimistic during potentially disruptive crises. In the four large crises we studied, the fund’s initial assessment of the immediate impact on global growth understated it by 0.5 percentage points.

🇺🇸In the US, investors will watch for any additional deterioration in consumer sentiment and inflation expectations when the University of Michigan issues revised data April data on Friday. Tariffs, and the risk they pose to both the economy and inflation, have been on the mind of survey respondents in recent months.

🇦🇷Fresh off securing a $20 billion agreement with the IMF, which includes a $12 billion upfront payment, Argentina reports February GDP-proxy data on Tuesday. After contracting for a second year in 2024, South America’s No. 2 economy is seeing a V-shaped recovery and is forecast to lead growth among the region’s big economies this year and next.

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📊 Uzbekistan Sees Significant Growth in the Business Activity Index

1️⃣In March of this year, the Business Activity Index (BAI), calculated by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR), reached 1,190 points, marking a significant 19% increase compared to the previous month.

➡️The following changes were observed in the BAI components

🔽The number of operations on bank accounts of business entities decreased by 3%

🔼 The intensity of raw material procurement on the commodity exchange significantly increased by 47.8%

🔼The component related to operating business entities rose by 4.6%

🔽The trademark component decreased by 3.7%

⬆️ In the regional context, Syrdarya region showed the highest growth

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⚡️Trade Tensions With China Clear Path for Salt-Powered Batteries

Bloomberg reports that long a pipe dream, sodium-ion batteries are gaining market share as lithium tariffs create uncertainty.

📊Sodium-ion batteries are cheaper to make and less combustible than their lithium-ion counterparts. They also pack less power into the same amount of space, which has been a disadvantage for products such as electric vehicles and smartphones. But some of the fastest-growing areas of need for energy storage, including data centers and other industrial settings, aren’t especially sensitive to battery volume or weight.

📈BNEF projects that sodium-ion batteries will account for 15% of the energy storage market by 2035, up from about 1% today.

📊If the country stops exporting graphite, or if the Trump administration continues to increase tariffs on it, lithium-ion battery producers around the world would be gravely affected. Sodium-ion batteries are a way to circumvent that supply chain: They often use hard carbon, a far more abundant material similar to charcoal, for their electrodes.

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🖊 Harvard Growth Lab: Uzbekistan climbs 25 positions in the Economic Complexity Index over 5 years

CERR has conducted an analysis of the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) published by the Growth Lab at Harvard University.

📊Uzbekistan has made significant progress, rising 25 positions over the past 5 years to 80th place among 145 countries.

📈Uzbekistan’s economy is showing stable growth, with average annual export growth reaching 20.5%, considerably exceeding the pace observed across other regional economies. Non-oil exports alone grew by 21.9% annually, outpacing global averages.

👍According to Harvard Growth Lab estimates, Uzbekistan has 162 products with demonstrated competitive advantages in global markets, highlighting the country’s growing potential in the global economy.

📉Uzbekistan is projected to maintain an average annual GDP growth rate of 5.6% through 2033 – the 2nd highest in the world.

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🇨🇳When Will China Start to Devalue the Yuan

Bloomberg reports that unless Beijing brings out the big stimulus, weakening the currency is the easiest way to offset Trump’s tariffs..

📊The People’s Bank of China is signaling a willingness to weaken the RMB, but on its own terms. Last week, the central bank set its daily reference rate at above 7.20 per dollar, a psychologically important level that had not been breached since September 2023, even as the greenback fell against other major currencies. Meanwhile, the PBOC has asked state banks to reduce dollar purchases to avoid steep declines in the yuan.

📉To hit the 5% growth target, Beijing will need to roll out another 12 trillion yuan ($1.6 trillion), or 8.6% of GDP, the bank reckons. At the National People’s Congress in March, China already raised its broad budget deficit to 8% of GDP, versus 6.6% last year.

📊To be sure, economists are making various assumptions to reach their price targets. Barclays, for instance, assumes a fiscal multiplier of 0.3, so every percentage point increase in budget deficit gives only 0.3% boost to growth. Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, is more generous, seeing a 0.5% lift. What they do agree on, however, is that Beijing will stick to its growth target, one way or another.

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🇹🇷Tashkent Emerged as a Hub for Uniting the Analytical Capacities of the Turkic States

The international conference of think tanks from the member states of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) concluded its work in Tashkent.

🤝The participants demonstrated regional solidarity in action, analyzing the current state of trade and economic relations and identifying strong new growth opportunities.

📌The combined population of Turkic states exceeds 175 million, and their internal market is valued at over $5.6 trillion in purchasing power parity terms. The collective GDP of the OTS exceeded $2.1 trillion in 2024. According to the results of 2024, intra-OTS trade accounted for about 7% of the countries’ total trade turnover, which reached $850 billion last year.

📈The Turkic states collectively rank as the world’s third-largest energy supplier, granting the region additional strategic advantages. OTS countries possess proven reserves of 19.9 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, 38.2 billion barrels of oil, and 42 billion tons of coal, highlighting their strategic role in the global energy market.

As noted by CERR Director Obid Khakimov:
"The experience of analytical collaboration between think tanks of Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan proves the effectiveness of an expert-based approach to identifying areas for cooperation. This mechanism could serve as a foundation for the systemic development of intra-organizational partnerships and the generation of new economic initiatives within the OTS framework."


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🇹🇷Tashkent Emerged as a Hub for Uniting the Analytical Capacities of the Turkic States

The international conference of think tanks from the member states of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) concluded its work in Tashkent.

🤝The participants demonstrated regional solidarity in action, analyzing the current state of trade and economic relations and identifying strong new growth opportunities.

📌The combined population of Turkic states exceeds 175 million, and their internal market is valued at over $5.6 trillion in purchasing power parity terms. The collective GDP of the OTS exceeded $2.1 trillion in 2024. According to the results of 2024, intra-OTS trade accounted for about 7% of the countries’ total trade turnover, which reached $850 billion last year.

📈The Turkic states collectively rank as the world’s third-largest energy supplier, granting the region additional strategic advantages. OTS countries possess proven reserves of 19.9 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, 38.2 billion barrels of oil, and 42 billion tons of coal, highlighting their strategic role in the global energy market.

As noted by CERR Director Obid Khakimov:
"The experience of analytical collaboration between think tanks of Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan proves the effectiveness of an expert-based approach to identifying areas for cooperation. This mechanism could serve as a foundation for the systemic development of intra-organizational partnerships and the generation of new economic initiatives within the OTS framework."


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🇹🇷Tashkent Becomes a Platform for Dialogue Among Turkic Think Tanks: Focus on Trade and Global Risks

The capital of Uzbekistan is hosting the International Conference on “Expanding Trade Potential Among Countries of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS): Joint Research and Strategic Solutions”, bringing together leading think tanks from OTS countries.

💬In his welcoming remarks, CERR Director Obid Khakimov noted:
«Being in the heart of Central Asia, we have a unique opportunity to unite expertise and forge strong partnerships across the Turkic world that will make our economies more integrated and competitive».

🤝The conference brings together 16 national analytical centers from six Turkic states: Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Hungary.

🪧The discussions focus on the key challenges faced by Turkic economies amid global instability. Participants emphasized that these risks also present windows of opportunity to strengthen collaboration.

📉It is worth noting that trade among the member states of the Organization has increased 2.7 times since 2016, reaching $36.7 billion. In 2024, the total foreign trade turnover of the OTS member and observer states exceeded $1.2 trillion, while their combined nominal GDP accounted for 1.91% of the global total, amounting to $2.1 trillion (or $5.6 trillion in purchasing power parity terms).

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🖋 Tashkent to Become the Center for Discussing Trade and Economic Cooperation Strategies of Turkic States

On April 14, 2025, the capital of Uzbekistan will host the International Conference of Leading Think Tanks of the Member States of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS)

🔝The event is organized by the CERR in cooperation with the OTS Secretariat and is being held within the framework of an initiative proposed by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev at the 11th Summit of Turkic States in Bishkek on November 6, 2024.

🔝The main objective of the conference is to enhance the trade and economic potential of OTS countries through in-depth research and the development of practical recommendations. Participants will address issues such as the elimination of trade barriers, simplification of customs procedures, and the development of electronic trading platforms.

🔽The agenda includes 4 thematic sessions:
🔢 Current State of Trade Among OTS Member States and Untapped Opportunities
🔢 Digital Trade and Innovation
🔢 Regional Integration and Infrastructure Projects
🔢 Sustainable Development: Green Economy and Socio-Demographic Challenges

❗️We invite interested media outlets to participate. For inquiries, please contact: 78 150 02 02 (ext. 417)

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🖊 On April 14, 2025, Tashkent will host the International Conference of Leading Think Tanks of the Member States of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), themed: “Expanding Trade Potential Among the Countries of the OTS: Joint Research and Strategic Solutions.”

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💵What Are Stablecoins and Why Are Regulators Wary?

Bloomberg reports that central bankers have called for legislation to regulate stablecoin companies in much the same way as banks.

💰 If you put a dollar bill under your mattress, you know you’ll get a dollar bill back when you go looking for it, and that the paper currency will still be worth $1. A branch of cryptocurrencies called stablecoins has grown up based on the idea that such dependability can be replicated in new ways. Stablecoins have become crucial to the functioning of crypto markets, with about $235 billion in circulation in early April.

📌Many stablecoin issuers say they hold cash or other assets to match the value of the stablecoin in circulation. So when a user pays Tether $1 for a token, that money is supposed to be held in relatively safe assets. Another type known as algorithmic stablecoins use automated operations meant to maintain their value.

📈Stablecoin circulation is heavily dominated by Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC which, combined, make up more than 80% of the market. As crypto adoption has grown, others have slowly made their way into the space, including financial and technology heavyweights. A high-profile attempt by Facebook and Instagram owner Meta Platforms Inc. to launch a stablecoin in 2019 later unraveled after a backlash. The rollout in 2023 of a stablecoin from PayPal Holdings Inc. marked the first effort from a big financial company.

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🇺🇸 Trump's Tariff 'Chart of Death' Has Wall Street Facing Harsh Reality

Bloomberg reports that the American investor class — that top 10% that owns almost all of the stocks — is quickly coming to terms with its new, much-diminished status in the era of Donald Trump’s trade offensive.

📉The market crash Trump stoked last week was one for the history books. The Nasdaq 100 plunged into a bear market; more than $5 trillion was wiped off the value of all US shares in two days; commodities collapsed and corporate-bond investors frantically bought insurance contracts that shield them from default.

📊Whatever Trump’s end game is — whether it’s to make America wealthy again, create enough chaos to unlock a frozen housing market, or simply a political calculation that a bloated stock market owned mainly by the rich could stand pruning — one thing is certain three months into his second term: Wall Street’s heralded status as a primary constituency of modern presidents is under assault.

📊By many accounts, the stock market was due for a reckoning, with or without the new tariffs. In recent years, the S&P 500 has been priced higher than any time since the dot-com bubble, according to one key metric. And even with last week’s plunge, stock market gains look strong. Over the past decade, annual returns are still around 10% or higher.

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🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump’s Tariffs and China Collide to Shock the $115 Trillion Global Economy
[long read]

Bloomberg reports that investors the world over are trying to reprice risk in an age of uncertainty inflamed by dueling US and Chinese visions for the future.

🌐Reality that’s now become clear to panicked investors, defiant foreign leaders and vexed CEOs: A global economy forecast to churn out $115 trillion in output this year must now contend with twin colliding shocks from its two biggest growth engines. Few will escape unscathed.

🇨🇳A Bloomberg Economics analysis of trade flows and economic relationships finds that China is likely to redirect most of its exports to replace the market it stands to lose in the US — just as it did following Trump’s first trade war. The challenge is that this time it will do so as other economies struggle with the loss of their own exports to America.

📉According to a scenario in which the Trump tariffs stand and targeted countries retaliate by imposing duties half the size on imports from America, US imports of goods from the rest of the world would be around 30% lower by 2030 than they would’ve been if tariffs remained unchanged. China is hit hardest with an 85% slump in exports to the US. US imports from major non-China trading partners like Japan and South Korea would be reduced by more than 50% while the value of goods from the European Union and India would tumble almost 40%.

📊One antidote for the global economy to the vanishing US demand would be if that gap could be filled by China itself. It now has a $1 trillion trade surplus with the world, and by ramping up domestic demand it could step in to replace the US consumer. But that remains a distant proposition: After barely growing last year, China’s imports have fallen more than 8% this year.

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💵 Finance Needs to Be Prepared for the Unexpected

Bloomberg reports that excessive leverage puts everyone at risk. Here’s what to do about it.

🔄 Leverage is the two-edged sword of finance. The ability to borrow multiples of their own capital empowers people to buy homes, businesses to invest, and banks and other intermediaries to profit by making it all go smoothly. But it also allows them to lose more money than they have.

📄 The more levered financial institutions are, the greater the risk that losses will cascade from one to another. Limits are crucial to ensure the system’s resilience. In nonbank finance, the most common limit on leverage is the margin or haircut — funds that must be pledged to gain a given amount of exposure.

🔗 The resilience of nonbanks matters, given their growing role in the global economy. As of 2023, their assets amounted to an estimated $239 trillion, or more than 225% of global GDP — compared with 178% for traditional banks.

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🇨🇳China Restricts Companies From Investing in US as Tensions Rise

Bloomberg reports that China has taken steps to restrict local companies from investing in the US, according to people familiar with the matter, in a move that could give Beijing more leverage for potential trade negotiations with the Trump administration.

📊 While China has previously placed restrictions on some overseas investments for reasons linked to concerns about national security and capital outflows, the new measures underscore tensions playing out between the world’s two biggest economies as Donald Trump ramps up tariffs. China’s outbound investments into the US totaled $6.9 billion in 2023, according to the latest available figures.

📉While the latest restriction mostly applies to corporate investment in the US, the move adds uncertainty for firms that are seeking to shift production abroad to bypass the trade barriers and attempt to navigate an intensifying global standoff.

📊The latest data from China’s Ministry of Commerce showed outbound investments into the US slumped 5.2% in 2023 despite an increase of 8.7% into all foreign countries. The cumulative stock of China’s investment in the US accounted for only 2.8% of the total at the end of 2023.

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🖊 CERR and the World Bank Discuss Cooperation in Economic Development

On April 3, 2025, the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) hosted a meeting between CERR Director Obid Khakimov and the World Bank mission on economic development, led by Program Leader David Knight.

👥 The meeting focused on discussing the next phase of the economic development program. During the talks, the CERR Director presented the wide-ranging reforms underway in Uzbekistan, as well as the results of CERR’s research assessing the impact of these reforms on the national economy.

🔝 The parties discussed the reform agenda, including cooperation in the field of public finance and program-based budgeting. Experts highlighted the importance of conducting in-depth analytical work on public finance systems and tax policy.

🔝 Another key topic was the IT sector, which is showing confident growth and strong potential for Uzbekistan’s economy. In particular, experts estimate that export revenue from this sector could reach $1 billion.

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❗️❗️❗️3️⃣rd issue of the "Economic Review" Journal

➡️ Topic of the issue: Relations with France are Becoming Strategic

⬇️In this issue:

🔝 Dynamic start of 2025

🔝 Partnership united by Afghanistan

🔝 I have built my business on a combination of science and practice
⚡️ interview with an entrepreneur ⚡️

🔝 Relations with France are becoming strategic

🔝 Georgian visit to Tashkent

🔝 Fight against cigarette smuggling in Uzbekistan

🔝 Reducing the shadow economy in retail trade

🔝 Escalation of the trade standoff

🔝 Activities that are positively perceived by the population
🔝 interview with assistant to the khokim

🔝 Tax policy in the writings of Babur

🔝 "Scaling People: Tactics for Management and Company Building" by Claire Hughes Johnson
📖Book Review

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🔺Economic Review
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‼️All issues of the "ECONOMIC REVIEW" Journal are available via
✔️CLICK ✔️PAYME ✔️Visa / MasterCard

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🔝Wall Street Is Rewriting Its Energy-Sector Playbook
[long read]

Bloomberg reports that Trump’s oil and gas policies are causing a shakeup in the $1.4 trillion energy-finance sector.

🔝Wall Street’s unanimity on the need to limit climate change is collapsing, sparking a reset in the $1.4 trillion global market for energy finance. As the White House makes supporting oil, gas and coal a priority, US banks that just a few years ago were vocal in their embrace of net zero targets are now following a very different playbook.

🔝 There is a planned resurrection of a national Fair Access to Banking Act, which was largely in limbo during the Biden administration. US bankers who Bloomberg spoke with expect the proposed law to force them to lift their existing restrictions on financing activities like coal mining and oil sands production. even if the Fair Access requirement doesn’t change banks’ risk appetite, it will likely force them to update their lending and underwriting policies.

🔝 For every 1C of warming, research shows that the world’s gross domestic product is estimated to fall by a staggering 12%. According to the latest forecast from the United Nations Environment Programme, the planet is currently on track for warming of roughly 3C. it’s become “borderline impossible to hold the line at 1.5C.” But if banks take the position that “it’s not our job” to drive the economy toward net zero, then that job “never gets done.”

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🇺🇿🇪🇺New Economic Prospects to Open in Samarkand

1️⃣An analytical article by Obid Khakimov, Director of the CERR, has been published in the "Pravda Vostoka" newspaper and dedicated to the prospects for developing economic cooperation between Uzbekistan and the EU within the framework of the "Central Asia – European Union" Summit taking place in Samarkand on April 3–4 of this year.

🪧EU countries account for about 16% of Uzbekistan's total imports of machinery, equipment, and transport vehicles. In 2024, these items, including aircraft, electrical products, instruments, and medical equipment, made up about 50% of imports from the EU.

📊In 2024, the volume of foreign investment and loans from EU countries (including financial institutions of EU member states) increased by 77% and reached $4.1 billion.

📊The most active investors were:
🇩🇪 Germany – $1.37 bln.
🇳🇱 Netherlands – $1.05 bln.
🇨🇾 Cyprus – $858,9 mln.
🇨🇿 Czech – $137,8 mln.
🇮🇹 Italy – $99.8 mln.
🇸🇪 Sweden – $97.5 mln.

"There is mutual interest in adopting mutually beneficial decisions, and this implies that the outcomes of the Summit will most favorably contribute to the development of economic cooperation between the countries of Europe and Central Asia, and in particular, Uzbekistan".

🔝The article includes the following sections:
🔘 On the Upcoming EU–Central Asia Summit
🔘 Trajectory of Uzbekistan–EU Cooperation
🔘 Prospects for the Development of Economic Cooperation
🔘 Conclusion

Obid Khakimov,
CERR director

"Pravda Vostoka" newspaper
April 3, 2025

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🇺🇸What Is Trump Actually Trying to Do With Tariffs
[long read]

Bloomberg reports that US President Donald Trump has stepped up his campaign to reshape the global economy. Here’s what you need to know.

📝The US will apply a minimum 10% tariff on all imports as of April 5, and additional duties will be charged, as of April 9, on goods from the countries that have the largest trade surpluses with the US. The additional duties – dubbed reciprocal tariffs – have been customized for about 60 trading partners.

📊Their reciprocal rate is based on the Trump administration’s calculation of the burden on US exporters of each trading partner’s own tariffs and other non-tariff barriers to trade. The reciprocal tariff rates assigned to Cambodia and Vietnam are among the highest, at 49% and 46%, respectively. India is somewhere in the middle at 26%. The European Union was assigned a 20% rate. China’s rate is 34%, but added on top of that is the 20% rate imposed on all Chinese goods already in place.

📊The revenue brought in by tariffs could help pay for the tax cuts promised by Trump. He wants to extend reductions in income taxes that were approved in 2017 during his first presidency, many of which are due to expire at the end of 2025. He’s even put forward proposals to expand these tax breaks – for example, by exempting workers’ tips and social security earnings from taxation. He also aims to slash the corporate tax rate to 15%, from 21%. These tax measures are expected to lead to a loss in government revenue of $4.6 trillion over 10 years.

📈The tariffs Trump has laid out in his second term are far more substantial than those introduced during his first presidency. Bloomberg Economics estimated on April 2 that the tariffs Trump has announced so far could take the average effective tariff rate in the US to around 23%, from 2.3% in 2024. Bloomberg Economics estimates that the reciprocal tariffs alone could deliver a hit to GDP of 2.4% and a price boost of 1.4%.

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🇺🇸How Do Tariffs Work? Who Pays, Who Collects and More

Bloomberg reports that US President Donald Trump has defied decades of economic convention by imposing punitive tariffs on goods from some of the country’s most important trading partners.

♾ How are US tariffs collected and enforced. Goods that cross borders are given numeric codes under a standardized nomenclature called the “international harmonized system.” Tariffs can be assigned to specific product codes relating to, for example, a truck chassis, or to broad categories, such as electric vehicles. Customs agencies collect tariffs on behalf of governments.

⬇️ How much money is generated by US tariffs. The Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan think tank, estimates that tariffs imposed on China by Trump during his first term and expanded during Joe Biden’s presidency generated $77 billion in annual revenue. White House Trade adviser Peter Navarro has said Trump’s tariffs will raise $700 billion a year, about nine times current US customs revenue.

👥 Who pays for the tariffs. Tariffs are paid by the importer, or an intermediary acting on the importer’s behalf. But it’s often someone else who ultimately shoulders the cost. Trump argues that it’s the exporter who takes the hit. Research has generally found that it’s US consumers and businesses that end up paying for tariffs, through higher prices. The importer may also absorb some of the cost, reducing their profits.

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🇺🇿🇪🇺Infographic: Trade, Economic and Investment Cooperation Between Uzbekistan and EU Countries

1️⃣On April 3–4, 2025, the “Central Asia – European Union” Summit is taking place in Samarkand.

#CERR has prepared an infographic illustrating the dynamics of Uzbekistan’s foreign trade and investment cooperation with EU countries over the past 8 years.

📶 Uzbekistan’s trade turnover with EU countries from 2017 to 2024 increased 2.4 times from $2.6 billion to $6.4 billion.

🔝 Exports in 2024 increased by 26.9% (vs 2023)
🔝 Imports in 2024 remained unchanged

🔝 EU countries are among the main suppliers to Uzbekistan of “machinery, equipment and transport vehicles,” chemical and other industrial products necessary for development.

📊 About 1000 enterprises with capital from EU countries operate in Uzbekistan.

🪧 For the period 2017–2024, the total volume of attracted direct investments and loans from EU countries (including from EU financial institutions) amounted to $12.4 billion.

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📊Traders Fear Global FX Market May Be Less Liquid Than It Appears

Bloomberg reports that currency heavyweights warn the fragmented, tech-driven modern market could be storing up trouble.

📉The global arena for foreign exchange appears on the surface to be a giant pool of cash in constant churn, generating $7.5 trillion of transactions per day — more than all other major asset classes combined.

📊But lately key names from the industry including the likes of Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and XTX Markets Ltd. have begun to fret about just how deep the pool really is. They fear a proliferation of trading platforms and the widespread use of automation are creating the illusion of market depth.

📈A key worry with a liquidity mirage is that it makes it hard to judge risk. The distorted perception of market depth can lead investors to take on more than they realize, and when a selloff comes, the moves can be bigger and faster than anyone expected.

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🇪🇺Europe Keeps Going Green as the Going Gets Tough

Bloomberg reports that the EU deserves credit for keeping up the fight against climate change. If only it were enough.

📊Target is net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050. To this end, the bloc manages the world’s largest and most effective cap-and-trade system, imposing a carbon price of more than €60 per ton on power plants and heavy industry, sectors that account for about 40% of the bloc’s total emissions.

📉The European Commission’s new Clean Industrial Deal aims to pick up momentum while reducing some of the burdens. The goal is still net zero by 2050. The plan is to harness government credit and procurement to boost supply of, and demand for, green products such as low-carbon steel and electricity-grid components. And there’ll be tens of billions of euros in subsidies to cut industrial emissions.

📊Without major initiatives such as a much larger EU budget, joint borrowing and a true European capital market, the 2050 net-zero goal will remain out of reach. The bloc’s own environmental agency recognizes that current policies aren’t enough.

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🌙 The Center for Economic Research and Reforms extends its heartfelt congratulations to you and your loved ones on the blessed holiday of Ramazan Hayit!

Wishing your home happiness, harmony, and prosperity!

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📊 A moderate increase in the Business Activity Index is observed in Uzbekistan

1️⃣In February this year, the Business Activity Index (BAI), calculated by the CERR, amounted to 1103 points, showing a significant increase of 10.3% compared to the previous month.

➡️The following changes were observed in the BAI components

🔼The number of operations on bank accounts of business entities increased by 7.6%

🔼 The intensity of raw material procurement on the commodity exchange significantly increased by 15.5%

🔼The component related to operating business entities rose by 3.4%

🔼The trademark component increased significantly by 23.9%

⬆️ In the regional context, Fergana region showed the highest growth

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⛓️‍💥A New ‘China Shock’ Is Destroying Jobs Around the World
[long read]

Bloomberg reports that from Indonesia to Mexico, job losses could mount as Trump’s tariffs divert even more Chinese exports from the US.

📊Southeast Asia’s biggest economy lost roughly a quarter-million jobs in the textiles and apparel industry over the last two years, according to the Indonesia Fiber and Filament Yarn Producer Association, which has estimated another half-million are at risk in 2025—effectively wiping out one of four jobs in the sector in a matter of years.

📉Leaders of countries caught in the middle of US-China tensions—most of whom are reluctant to pick a side—must delicately navigate relations with each of the two giants while preventing job losses at home that could ultimately cost them power. Research by Bloomberg Economics shows that China has roughly managed to maintain its share of global exports despite a big drop in its share of total US imports since Trump’s first term.

📊While a good portion of that is finished products like Chinese-made cellphones, clothing and home appliances, there has also been a jump in imports of parts and materials destined for factories producing goods for export to the US—evidence that Trump’s tariffs triggered a shift in global supply chains.

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✔️ Assistants to the khokims are among people ("Kuyosh" makhalla)

📍The "Economic Review" Journal continues to cover issues related to the introduction of the new "makhallabay" system.

📌 Tulkin Jangirov, assistant to the khokim in "Kuyosh" makhalla in Syrdarya district of Syrdarya region, regarding the situation with the introduction of the "makhallabay" system in an interview to "ER".

✂️The editorial provides excerpts from the interview:

➖ In the Quyosh mahalla alone, a greenhouse averaging 8 acres brings in about 200 million sums in annual income. In 2023, vegetables worth over 35 billion sums were exported from our mahalla to two regions of Russia.

➖ It’s worth noting that the vegetables grown in the mahalla are packaged and processed right here. These services were organized in one of the local households, providing daily employment for local women.

➖ I strongly promote lemon cultivation in the mahalla because growing lemons in a greenhouse is far more profitable than growing tomatoes, cucumbers, or other vegetables. I studied the techniques of lemon cultivation by visiting Kokand and the Dangara district.

➖ Based on my experience, I can say that many citizens have a deeply rooted dependency mindset - some mistakenly believe that others should solve their problems for them. Moreover, laziness is also quite common. As a result, existing opportunities are underutilized.

Jamoliddin Turdimov

In the country/Assistants to the khokims are among people

«Economic Review» Journal №2/2025

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📁#Infographics: Uzbekistan's trade with CIS countries in February 2025

📍In February 2025, the CIS countries accounted for 31.2% of the foreign trade turnover of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

✔️The foreign trade turnover of the Republic of Uzbekistan with the CIS countries in February this year increased by 5.3% and amounted to $3.4 billion

◼️export – $1.3 bln (+23.2%)
◼️import – $2.1 bln

✔️The largest shares of foreign trade turnover with the CIS countries were with Russia (48%), Kazakhstan (20%), Kyrgyzstan (5%) and Turkmenistan (3%).

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💻 Catastrophe Experts Tap AI to Tackle Soaring Insured Losses

Bloomberg reports that with annual insured disaster losses of $150 billion now “the new normal,” insurers are hoping technology can help turn the tide.

📊While traditional models apply complex physics and elaborate computer simulations to estimate the probability of future losses, the results often can fall short. Flood models designed to measure the same risk have yielded conflicting outcomes. Wildfire models can struggle to accommodate the dizzying number of variables in play.

📉Proponents of AI contend it can provide a more accurate estimate of property-level risk for weather calamities. Once an AI model is trained on what it’s supposed to look for, it becomes part of a modeling process that churns through huge volumes of data from aerial and satellite imagery to create a physical assessment of an individual property, eventually turning it into a risk report. Humans would find it nearly impossible to perform such a detailed model and analysis, especially if a portfolio contains thousands or millions of homes.

📈Risk experts are increasingly using AI to crack an especially intractable challenge: modeling hailstorms, thunderstorms and tornadoes, collectively known as severe convective storms, or SCS. Insured losses from SCS events totaled $61 billion in 2024, the second-highest level on record, according to Aon Plc.

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📊 #Infographics: Uzbekistan's Trade with Central Asian Countries in February 2025

📈 By the end of February 2025, the volume of Uzbekistan's foreign trade with Central Asian countries reached $1 billion, which was 9.4% of the total volume of foreign trade.

➡️ Exports amounted to $392.1 million (+23.3%)
⬅️ Imports amounted to $626.7 million (+0.9%)

📊 The largest share in Uzbekistan's trade turnover with Central Asian countries was accounted for by Kazakhstan – 65%, the rest: Kyrgyzstan – 16%, Turkmenistan – 11% and Tajikistan – 8%.

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🇨🇳 China Floods the World With AI Models After DeepSeek’s Success

Bloomberg reports that the rapidly accelerating array of enhancements and tune-ups is more than Chinese companies jumping on the DeepSeek bandwagon.

📊Since DeepSeek upstaged OpenAI in January with a powerful model that purportedly cost just several million dollars to build, China’s tech leaders have flooded the market with a rapid succession of low-cost AI services, undercutting premium offerings from the likes of OpenAI and Alphabet Inc.’s Google. Chinese companies have in the past two weeks rolled out no fewer than 10 major product updates or releases — and that’s just the big names.

📉Baidu Inc. unfurled the Ernie X1 in direct competition with DeepSeek’s R1. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. followed suit with its own AI agents and reasoning model upgrade. Just in the past week, Tencent Holdings Ltd. trotted out its AI blueprint and answer to the R1; Ant Group Co. shared findings on how Chinese chips can slash costs by a fifth; DeepSeek itself upgraded the V3 model. Even Meituan — best known as the world’s biggest meal-delivery service — announced it was splashing out billions of dollars on AI.

📊Collectively, the AI models — nearly all of them open-sourced — represent the developers’ effort to set world standards and benchmarks, and grab a bigger slice of the global market. While the jury is out on whether these AI releases match or surpass the most cutting-edge systems from Western AI developers, these newer options are putting more pressure on the business models of leading US companies.

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📊#Infographics: Uzbekistan's foreign trade for February 2025

📶Uzbekistan's foreign trade turnover in February 2025 amounted to $10.8 billion (+9.9%)

➡️Exports in foreign trade turnover amounted to $4.6 billion (+27.7%)

✔️In the structure of exports, goods amounted to $3.4 billion and services to $1.2 billion

⬅️Imports in foreign trade amounted to $6.2 billion

✔️In particular, goods were imported for $5.5 billion and services for $660.8 million

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🇪🇺Europe Should Hold Its Fire in Coming Tariff War

Bloomberg reports that everyone loses in a tit-for-tat escalation. The EU should focus on resilience instead.

🔝 Although details are murky, the White House plans to announce what it calls “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2 — with rates that factor in everything from value-added tax to subsidies to regulation. About one-third of EU goods exports to the US could suddenly face tariff rates of 20%, almost certainly throwing Europe into recession.

🔝 The EU has prepared duties on as much as $28 billion in US products in return; Americans would see prices soar on (among other things) prescription drugs, manufacturing machinery and inputs for a slew of industries.

🔝 A tariff war would harm both sides — bringing higher prices, broken supply chains and weaker alliances — without fixing any of the problems the US administration is preoccupied with.

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🇨🇳China Learned to Embrace What the US Forgot: The Virtues of Creative Destruction

Bloomberg reports that in Beijing, competition is in. In Washington, not so much.

📉After decades following British economist John Maynard Keynes and his doctrine of demand management, China’s leadership is taking a lesson from US economist Joseph Schumpeter and his creed of creative destruction.

📊According to Bloomberg Economics’ projections, China’s fiscal deficit is set to swell from 6.6% of gross domestic product in 2024 to 8.5% in 2025. Bloomberg Economics forecasts that by 2026, real estate will contribute less than 17% of China’s GDP, down from almost a quarter in 2017. High-tech sectors are poised to increase their share from less than 11% to more than 18% over the same period.

🇺🇸In the US, tech champions already enjoy enormous market power. If their position onstage at the Trump inauguration is anything to go by, they’re looking to build strong relations with the White House to help cement it. Elon Musk’s central role in the government will surely not erode the competitive position of his many businesses.

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🌱The Center for Economic Research and Reforms congratulates all compatriots on the spring holiday — Navruz!

✨We wish well-being to your home and all your loved ones!

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🏠 Real Estate Market Resilience Amid Declining Activity – CERR Overview

🔍The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has presented its regular review analyzing the changes in Uzbekistan's real estate market.

📉 Despite a strong start to the year, sales in February declined by 12%, amounting to 22,400 transactions.

📊 Nevertheless, despite the overall decline in sales, there was a moderate 1% increase in the number of housing transactions compared to the same period last year, totaling 221 transactions.

📉 Over the month, prices for secondary housing across the country saw a slight decline of 0.6%, while a moderate year-on-year increase of 1% was recorded.

📉In February, Tashkent's real estate market displayed mixed trends. The average price of secondary housing in the capital slightly decreased by 0.3%, while primary market prices rose by 2.5%.

Jaloliddin Usmonov, CERR

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🇨🇳This Is China’s Chance to Prove It’s a Climate Leader

Bloomberg reports that with the US out of the Paris accords (again), the world’s biggest polluter should show it’s serious about slashing emissions.

📊The world’s biggest emitter has undertaken a significant expansion of renewable energy — reaching its goal of adding 1,200 gigawatts from wind and solar six years early, and slating 150 new nuclear reactors for construction between 2020 and 2035.

📉 It may well triple renewables capacity and put 100 million electric vehicles on the road by 2030. The country’s carbon emissions could peak as soon as this year, also well ahead of schedule.

📈Even as China invested $940 billion in clean-energy sectors last year, it launched or resumed construction on almost 100 gigawatts of coal-power projects, the most since 2015. Energy officials expect fossil fuels to account for 30% of energy demand growth through 2030.

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🚗 Trends in Uzbekistan’s Automotive Market: CERR Overview

➡️ In February, activity in both the primary and secondary automobile markets showed a moderate decline. At the same time, sales of new domestically produced passenger cars remained stable, while the sale of imported vehicles decreased more than twofold.

1️⃣market. The primary passenger car market in Uzbekistan is showing overall decline. Sales of passenger cars decreased by 14.5%, compared to the previous month, amounting to 67,200 vehicles.

🚙market. The sales of new foreign-made passenger cars fell more than twice within the month.

2️⃣market. The secondary car market also experienced a decline in activity. In February, sales amounted to 43,300 vehicles, reflecting a 16% drop compared to January of this year.

♻ The segment of new electric passenger vehicles also saw a decline in activity. In February, sales reached 2,900 electric cars, which is 11% lower than the previous month.

📈 However, compared to the same period last year, sales more than doubled.

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🧪As Chips Race Spews ‘Forever Chemicals,’ Startups Emerge to Destroy Them

Bloomberg reports that PFAS are in everything from semiconductors to raincoats. As regulations on the substances increase, new ways of cleaning them up are on the rise.

📊Global chip sales surged more than 19% to roughly $628 billion last year, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association, which forecasts double-digit growth again in 2025. That’s adding urgency to reducing the impacts of so-called “forever chemicals” as are regulators in the US and Europe who are beginning to enforce pollution limits for municipal water supplies.

🌐Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, have been detected in every corner of the planet from rainwater in the Himalayas to whales off the Faroe Islands and in the blood of almost every human tested. Known as forever chemicals because the properties that make them so useful also make them persistent in the environment, scientists have increasingly linked PFAS to health issues including obesity, infertility and cancer.

📝Although the US and EU are beginning to limit the amount of PFAS allowed in drinking water, there are still few restrictions on what companies can release. There is hardly any US fab plant that faces restrictions on PFAS they can release in their wastewater. The biggest barrier to widespread adoption of new PFAS destruction technology is regulatory uncertainty.

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⚙️The Drums of War Echo Through Steel’s Scrapyard

Bloomberg reports that the current bout of protectionism is evoking a grim memory.

📊US 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum from every other country on the planet went into effect. A wide range of steel products are also on the list of goods the European Union will hit with retaliatory levies. Chinese exports have also been targeted for trade restrictions in recent months in Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey and Vietnam.

📉For all the public worry about a tidal wave of predatory imports undercutting venerable industrial plants, you have to go back to the Cold War to find a time when a smaller share of the world’s steel was traded across borders. In volume terms, global exports haven’t significantly increased since the mid-2000s, even as production has grown by half.

🌐 In the UK, the government has pledged £2.5 billion ($3.2 billion) to support local factories, while Australia has promised another A$2.4 billion ($1.5 billion) to keep one of the country’s two major mills open. China, which produces half the world’s steel, manages its largely state-owned industry via forced mergers, capacity shutdowns, control of construction permits and similar top-down orders.

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🖋 Uzbekistan’s Business Climate in CERR Assessments: Trends and Key Factors

📊 In February, the consolidated business climate indicator increased by 2 points compared to last month and amounted to 54 points.

📈 In February, a noticeable improvement in the consolidated business climate indicator was noted in construction and industry.

➡️ 48% of respondents rated the current state of business climate as "satisfactory"
➡️ 49% of respondents noted that demand for goods and services remained stable over the past 3 months
➡️ 73% of entrepreneurs express optimism regarding their business conditions

📊 The survey shows that many previously pressing issues are becoming less significant. An analysis of current problems in February shows that financing remains the most pressing issue to 8% of respondents.

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🇨🇳China Maps Out Plan to Raise Incomes and Boost Consumption

Bloomberg reports that China will take steps to revive consumption by boosting people’s incomes.

📊The guidelines that came from a State Council report set out other measures such stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, and offering incentives to raise the country’s birth rate. Policymakers in China increasingly recognize that a broad recovery in incomes is necessary to encourage people to boost spending.

📉China has set an ambitious economic growth goal at about 5% for 2025 and brought its fiscal deficit target to the highest in over three decades.

📊Chinese exports contributed to nearly a third of the country’s economic expansion in 2024. At the same time, China is still grappling with a prolonged property slump that has suppressed demand and kept prices low throughout the economy while wages stagnate.

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❗️❗️❗️2️⃣nd issue of the "Economic Review" Journal

➡️ Topic of the issue: Turn the Economy Into a Flourishing Oasis

⬇️In this issue:

🔝 Kuala Lumpur Visit

🔝 Turn the Economy Into a Flourishing Oasis

🔝 An enterprising and prudent person will make a good leader!
⚡️ interview with an entrepreneur ⚡️

🔝 Infrastructure development in the regions

🔝 The coal industry in the context of environmental challenges

🔝 Agro-food system of Uzbekistan

🔝 All the achieved results are the fruit of hard work
🔝 interview with assistant to the khokim

🔝 Economic views of Navoi

🔝 The success story of Turkish household appliances

🔝 "The Entrepreneurial State" by Mariana Mazzucato
📖Book Review

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